Verdriet voor België
Nu kan Raymond van het Groenewoud nog zo hard zingen “Vlaanderen
Boven”, Fitch denkt daar toch iets anders over: “Belgium
Has Outlook on Debt Lowered to Negative at Fitch – Belgium had the outlook
on its debt rating lowered to negative at Fitch Ratings, which joined
Standard & Poor’s in saying that political deadlock complicates efforts to
cut the euro area’s third-highest debt load.” Zodra het
over de Belgische economie gaat, kijk ik altijd even bij de zeergewaardeerde Geert
Noels van economshock. Zijn reactie
 op de outlookverlaging: “Geert Noels: ‘We moeten dit niet overdrijven.’”

Eurodomino bij default Griekenland
“A
Greek debt restructuring could affect the credit ratings of other European
sovereigns and would likely also lead to rating downgrades for Greek banks,
Moody’s Investors Service said Tuesday. A default would trigger a downgrade
for Greece, and possibly other European countries, regardless of what form
the restructuring takes, Moody’s said in a press release. This could take
the form of a selective "re-profiling" of debt, or large-scale "voluntary"
debt buy-backs at large discounts, the agency said. "The full impact on
Europe’s capital markets would be hard to predict and harder still to
control. The fallout would have implications for the creditworthiness (and
hence the ratings) of issuers across Europe," according to the Moody’s
report.” Hier de gehele tekst van Moody’s “Moody’s
Assesses Effect of a Potential Greek Default”

Verleningen looptijd
Maar ze lijken er aan te werken: “De
eurolanden zijn achter de schermen bezig met plannen voor een verlenging van
de looptijd van Griekse staatsleningen.” Nu wachten op de
uitkomst, dan kan Moody’s downgraden op de low en kan het herstel beginnen.

Herstructurering: een horror story?
Niet iedereen is even enthousiast over een herstructurering (“re-something”),
blijkt: dit net over de wires, van Bloomberg: ECB’s Noyer Says Greek
Restructuring Would Be a ‘Horror Story’ — European Central Bank Governing
Council member Christian Noyer ruled out a restructuring of Greece’s debt,
calling it a “horror story” that the central bank cannot accept. “There’s no
solution possible” for Greece other than to follow its austerity program,
Noyer told reporters in Paris today. “Restructuring is not a solution, it’s
a horror story,” and if the country fails to meet the terms of its bailout,
Greek government debt will be “ineligible as collateral” at the ECB.”

Duitsland dwingt Bundesländer de broekriem aan te trekken
In Duitsland als geheel gaat het lekker, en ze zijn ook pijnlijk consequent:
net zoals ze roepen dat
austerity de oplossing is voor de problemen in Griekenland, Portugal,
Ierland etc., zeggen ze nu dat de armste deelstaten van Duitsland zich
moeten rijkbezuinigen: "Germany
puts four states on debt watch list — Germany’s federal administration and
the country’s 16 state governments have declared four states in danger of
sliding into debt crises, forcing them to take steps to put their public
spending back on track. It was the first time Germany’s 17 finance ministers
activated the budget emergency procedures, which were put together two years
ago. The so-called debt-brake aims to put all budgets in surplus by 2020. ….
Although Germany’s tax-receipts have been growing steadily, thanks to a
buoyant economy, the four states have legacy problems – Saarland from the
demise of its coal mining industry and Berlin from bailing out a state-owned
bank in 2000." Hoe zullen die bezuinigingen gaan helpen? De ECB,
Merkel etc. menen dat het gaat om vertrouwen: dat is nu weg, vanwege de
tekorten enzo, en als je maar toont dat je streng kan bezuinigen, dan
komtendat vertrouwen en de investeringen weer terug. Gaat dit werken? Nee,
zie: Ierland.

Banken en zelfregulering
De regulators lijken te beseffen dat we het niet moeten hebben van
zelfregulering van de banken om leverage binnen de perken te houden.
Rosengren van de FED geeft een schot voor de boeg: “Banking supervisors need
to focus on gauging core capital levels at lending institutions to avoid
future disruptions to the increasingly-global financial markets, said a
regional Federal Reserve president Tuesday at a conference in St.
Petersburg, Russia. “ en “Instead of broader metrics such as the proportion
of total risk-based capital to risk-weighted assets, the new Basel rules
should focus on the most liquid measures of capital: tangible common equity
and tier 1 common capital, Rosengren said.

Pointing to such ratios leading up to the downfall of the now-defunct lenders
Wachovia and Washington Mutual, Rosengren said only the narrow metric hinted
at their inability to absorb losses.

"The broader definitions of capital were not particularly informative,"
Rosengren said. "The
particular capital that truly serves as a cushion against losses during
periods of stress should be the regulators' primary focus." In
Europe voelen ze er ook voor, al zal de invoering wellicht wat langer duren.
Via Bloomberg, geen link: EU May Establish ‘Adequate’ Basel Adjustment
Periods, Welt Says -- European Union Financial Services Commissioner Michel
Barnier said the EU could establish “adequate” adjustment periods for banks
to implement the Basel capital rules as a way of ensuring financing, Die
Welt reported. Stricter supervision over banks to ensure liquidity could
also be considered, Welt cited Barnier as saying in an interview. (BN)

Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research.

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